Russian defense minister makes first public appearance since mercenary revolt as uncertainty swirls

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu appeared in public for the first time since the mercenary uprising that called for his removal. In a video released by the Defense Ministry, Shoigu was seen inspecting troops in Ukraine, aiming to restore a sense of order after a chaotic weekend.

Shoigu was one of three influential Russian military leaders whose conflicting interests led to a mutiny, resulting in armed rebels seizing a Russian city and advancing towards the capital. However, the Wagner Group mercenaries reversed their course and returned to Ukraine after less than 24 hours.

The video of Shoigu’s public appearance, whose filming date remained unclear, was widely shown on Russian media, including state-controlled television. Neither Shoigu nor Russian President Vladimir Putin had been seen or heard in public since the uprising.

On Saturday, Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin lifted the “counter-terrorism regime” imposed on the capital, which involved the establishment of checkpoints and road closures by troops and armored vehicles.

The Defense Ministry’s video showcased Shoigu flying in a helicopter and attending a meeting with military officers at a Ukrainian military headquarters. This marked the first sighting of the defense minister since Yevgeny Prigozhin declared a “march of justice” to remove Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov. During the mutiny, the mercenaries captured Rostov-on-Don and marched towards Moscow.

The rebellion came to an end when Prigozhin ordered his troops to retreat. The Kremlin stated that an agreement had been reached for Prigozhin to move to Belarus and receive amnesty along with his soldiers. This mutiny posed the most significant challenge to President Putin during his over two decades of rule.

As Wagner’s convoy departed Rostov-on-Don after its brief occupation, Prigozhin, leading in an SUV, was asked about the outcome of his revolt. In a video shared on Russian social media, he responded, “It’s normal, we have cheered everyone up.”

The fate of Prigozhin and his forces remained uncertain, with few details about the deal disclosed by the Kremlin or Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who brokered it. Furthermore, Prigozhin’s whereabouts were unknown on Monday.

Prior to initiating the revolt, Prigozhin had vehemently criticized Shoigu and Gerasimov for months, using profanity-laden insults, accusing them of failing to supply his troops with sufficient ammunition during the arduous battle for Bakhmut.

Putin maintained a distance from the rift, and both Shoigu and Gerasimov remained silent, possibly reflecting uncertainty regarding Putin’s support. Observers suggested that Putin’s failure to resolve the feud encouraged Prigozhin to escalate the situation dramatically.

Alex Younger, former head of Britain’s MI6 intelligence agency, commented that it appeared “neither side was in control” during the rebellion. Younger stated that Prigozhin lacked a plan and sufficient manpower, while Putin seemed indecisive, initially vowing to crush the rebels and subsequently striking a deal.

Saturday, when asked by reporters whether Putin still trusted Shoigu, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded that he was unaware of any changes in the president’s attitude. Regarding discussions with Prigozhin, Peskov stated that personnel changes were solely within Putin’s authority as commander-in-chief and were not subject to negotiation.

Russian media and commentators speculated that Putin might replace Shoigu with Alexei Dyumin, the governor of the Tula region who had previously served as Putin’s bodyguard and deputy defense minister. They suggested that Putin, who avoids making decisions under pressure, would likely delay announcing any shake-up.

Political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya noted that Prigozhin’s mutiny was not an attempt to seize power or overthrow the Kremlin but a desperate move amid his escalating conflict with Russia’s military leadership. Stanovaya wrote on Twitter that while Prigozhin might survive the crisis, he had no political future in Russia under Putin.

The discord between Prigozhin and the top military brass had roots in the Russian military intervention in Syria, where the Wagner Group had also been active. Tensions significantly escalated in recent months during the battles for Bakhmut.

U.S. intelligence indicated that Prigozhin had been amassing forces near the Russian border for some time, suggesting premeditation for the rebellion. However, Prigozhin claimed that his revolt was a response to an attack on his field camps in Ukraine by the Russian military, which he alleged caused significant casualties among his men. The Defense Ministry denied these accusations.

The implications of the 24-hour rebellion on the war in Ukraine remained uncertain. Nonetheless, it resulted in the removal of some of Russia’s most formidable forces from the battlefield, including the Wagner troops, who had achieved the Kremlin’s sole land victory in months in Bakhmut, and the Chechen soldiers deployed to counter them on the approach to Moscow.

The Wagner forces’ rapid advance, largely unopposed, revealed vulnerabilities in Russia’s security and military forces. There were reports of the mercenaries downing several helicopters and a military communications plane, although the Defense Ministry did not comment on these incidents.

The U.K. Ministry of Defense stated that Ukraine had gained momentum in its offensive around Bakhmut, making progress both north and south of the town. The ministry’s daily assessment of the war pointed out that there was little evidence of Russia maintaining significant operational-level ground forces reserves to reinforce against multiple threats in widely separated sectors.

U.S. President Joe Biden and leaders of several European allies of Ukraine discussed the events in Russia over the weekend, but Western officials remained restrained in their public comments.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg referred to the events as an internal matter for Russia. Speaking in Vilnius, Lithuania, he described the crisis as another example of President Putin’s significant strategic mistake with the illegal annexation of Crimea and the war against Ukraine.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, prior to a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg, stated that the mutiny revealed cracks in Russia’s political system caused by the war. Borrell said, “The monster that Putin created with Wagner, the monster is biting him now. The monster is acting against his creator.”

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• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu
• Wagner Group mercenaries
• Conflict in Ukraine
• NATO’s response to events in Russia
• EU’s response to the mercenary revolt
• Yevgeny Prigozhin