Revolt by Russian mercenaries could threaten Putin’s grip on power, leading to more domestic challenges

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For the first time in his two-decade reign, President Vladimir Putin’s supremacy seemed precarious this past weekend.

Despite the retreat of the insubordinate Russian mercenary troops who approached Moscow, Putin may find it difficult to project the image of an undisputed leader as he used to. This could pave the way for more internal opposition to his leadership and potentially diminish Russia’s standing in the Ukraine conflict.

Led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner troops invaded Rostov-on-Don—a city housing 1.1 million residents—without any significant resistance, with an openly declared intent of displacing the Russian defense minister. They proceeded towards the capital with astonishing speed after capturing the city’s military base.

Prigozhin’s framing of himself as an adversary of an inept, corrupt elite struck a chord, an insight that Putin’s circle is unlikely to ignore in the following days.

Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the Institute for Strategic Studies, stated, “This incident has generated intense unease among Russia’s elite.” The maneuvers of Putin’s former protégé “massively undermine faith in Putin among influential individuals in his orbit.”

The Kremlin appeared helpless for several hours as Wagner convoys advanced across Russia, breaching sporadic roadblocks and taking down aircraft dispatched by the military in a frantic attempt to halt them.

As the majority of Russian forces were engaged in Ukraine, authorities hastily assembled a mix of military and police personnel to safeguard Moscow, instigated road blockades and even demolished bridges to delay the onslaught.

Both Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov disappeared from public sight on the critical day, enhancing the feeling of vulnerability and disarray.

In a nationally televised address early Saturday, Putin, looking grim, accused Prigozhin of treason and likened the situation to the 1917 Russian empire collapse.

However, shortly thereafter, Putin surprisingly granted Prigozhin amnesty—provided he accepts exile in Belarus.

While the Kremlin portrayed this agreement as a strategic decision to prevent a possible bloodshed, it was a surprising concession from a leader known for ruthlessly stifling dissent and occasionally using violent means against those bold enough to criticize him.

The rapid pardon for Prigozhin was in stark contrast to the Kremlin’s systematic suppression of critics and opponents of the war in Ukraine, who have faced legal action, forced exile, and even violent deaths. For many Russians, Putin’s handling of the revolt signified an unforgivable display of weakness.

Viktor Alksnis, a retired Soviet air force colonel and current hardliner whose views echo those of many Russian hawks critical of Putin’s leadership and his handling of the Ukraine war, stated, “Prigozhin showed that one can take over a city with a million people without fear of reprisal, defy orders from the country’s leadership, and conduct military marches on Moscow, killing Russian soldiers en route. Russia has come one step closer to its final and irreparable downfall.”

The setback for Putin is compounded by repeated Russian blunders during the 16-month war in Ukraine.

Gould-Davies emphasized that the mutiny has unsettled the military and dealt a significant blow to troop morale, providing Ukraine, currently at the beginning of its counteroffensive, with new opportunities.

Kirill Rogov, a political analyst who has extensively studied Putin’s politics, noted that Putin facilitated Prigozhin’s dispute with top military leaders as part of his strategy to shift blame for the military failures in Ukraine and pit elite members against each other, under the false assumption that he could fully control Prigozhin.

Putin managed to halt Prigozhin eventually—but the cost was exorbitant.

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This report includes contributions from Big Big News writer Danica Kirka in London.

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To follow AP coverage of the war in Ukraine, visit https://bigbignews.net/russia-ukraine-war

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More about Revolt by Russian Mercenaries

• Putin’s power threatened by Russian Mercenaries
• Profile of Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner troops
• Putin’s response to the revolt
• Implications of the revolt on the Ukraine conflict
• Public reaction to Putin’s handling of the revolt