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Mideast countries that are already struggling fear price hikes after Russia exits grain deal

by Michael Nguyen
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grain deal

The exit of Russia from a crucial wartime grain deal has caused concern among Mideast countries that were already facing economic struggles. Ahmed Salah, a bakery owner in Egypt, worries about potential global food price increases due to the suspension of the deal. Egypt, Lebanon, Pakistan, and other lower-income Middle Eastern nations rely on Ukraine and Russia as major suppliers of wheat, barley, sunflower oil, and other food items.

While some countries have diversified their sources of wheat and don’t expect immediate shortages, uncertainty about price hikes remains, which can worsen hunger in these regions. The suspension of the grain deal has led to attacks on Ukrainian ports and agricultural infrastructure, causing fluctuations in global wheat prices. Although overall production can meet worldwide demand, weaker currencies against the U.S. dollar and the need to find alternative suppliers farther away could result in increased costs for importers.

Leaders in the region, including Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, have raised concerns about higher food prices and called for a resolution to revive the Black Sea deal. Egypt heavily relies on wheat imports, and any spike in prices could strain the economy further, leading to potential inflation and increased cost of living. Lebanon, in the midst of an economic crisis, could face additional hurdles as it heavily depends on Ukrainian wheat and has limited grain reserves.

On a positive note, Pakistan has experienced a bumper crop despite previous flooding, thanks to aid provided to farmers. However, the country still calls for the restoration of the grain deal to ensure global food security and avoid future price surges.

Overall, the suspension of the grain deal poses significant challenges for the Mideast countries, exacerbating their economic woes and increasing concerns about food security and affordability for their populations.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about grain deal

Question 1: Why are Mideast countries concerned about Russia’s exit from the grain deal?

Answer: Mideast countries, including Egypt, Lebanon, and Pakistan, rely on Russia and Ukraine as major suppliers of wheat and other food items. Russia’s exit from the grain deal raises concerns about potential price hikes, which could worsen the ongoing economic struggles in these import-dependent nations and lead to a global food crisis.

Question 2: What impact does the suspension of the grain deal have on global food prices?

Answer: The suspension of the grain deal has led to uncertainty about price hikes, which is a major driver of hunger. Although there is enough overall production to meet worldwide demand, weaker currencies against the U.S. dollar and the need to find alternative suppliers farther away could result in increased costs for importers, especially in low-income countries.

Question 3: How are Mideast countries coping with the end of the grain deal?

Answer: Some Mideast countries have diversified their sources of wheat to mitigate immediate shortages. For instance, Pakistan has seen a bumper crop despite previous flooding, while Egypt claims its stockpile would cover the country’s needs for five months. However, concerns about potential inflation, rising food costs, and the strain on economies remain prevalent.

Question 4: What are the implications for Lebanon after the collapse of the grain deal?

Answer: Lebanon heavily relies on Ukraine for at least 90% of its wheat, and the agreement helped resolve supply shortages during the war. The deal’s collapse adds an additional hurdle to the country’s economic crisis, which has impoverished much of its population, and raises concerns about food prices at home.

Question 5: How does the exit from the grain deal affect Egypt’s economy?

Answer: Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, heavily depends on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine. Any increase in wheat prices could further strain Egypt’s economy, which has been facing decades of mismanagement, outside shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. Rising food costs are already contributing to a cost-of-living crisis in the country.

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