Manchin decision hurts Democrats’ Senate hopes and sparks new speculation about a presidential bid

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Joe Manchin’s announcement that he will not seek another Senate term is a blow to the Democratic Party’s chances of keeping control of the Senate, as it is expected that his seat will be lost to the Republicans in West Virginia. The move also stirs speculation about a possible independent presidential campaign that could complicate the reelection efforts of President Biden. Manchin, 76, hinted at larger aspirations in a video announcing his retirement, expressing his intention to explore the formation of a bipartisan movement.

The abrupt news heightens the Democrats’ concerns as they face a challenging election landscape in 2024, with President Biden running for a second term amid bipartisan voter concerns over his age and economic stewardship. Democrats hold a narrow Senate majority following a loss in the House last fall.

A group in Boston has initiated a draft campaign to propel Manchin and Senator Mitt Romney into an independent presidential bid, planning to reveal its efforts, backed by an initial fund of $1 million, next week. This initiative is part of efforts to nominate a candidate at the No Labels national convention in Texas, though Romney has dismissed the idea of a presidential run.

Despite Manchin’s silence on the matter, Democratic circles are wary of the influence of third-party candidates in the upcoming election, with No Labels gaining traction and securing presidential ballot access in several states. Progressive and centrist Democratic factions have voiced concerns over No Labels’ presidential plans, with some fearing that Manchin’s involvement could inadvertently aid in a Trump victory.

Manchin has had a positive relationship with No Labels and has participated in its events, sparking a debate on his role in addressing major national issues after his Senate term. The group has praised Manchin for his moderate stance and efforts to address critical challenges facing the nation.

As Democrats face the reality of defending seats in states won by Trump, their grip on the Senate majority looks increasingly tenuous. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, however, remains optimistic about defending their incumbents and sees potential in states like Texas and Florida.

Manchin’s tenure as Senator, beginning in 2012, has been marked by his ability to navigate West Virginia’s Republican-leaning tendencies, though his reelection chances against the state’s popular Republican Governor, Jim Justice, were slim.

The White House commended Manchin for his service, with President Biden expressing anticipation for continued collaboration. The Biden campaign has not commented on Manchin’s potential presidential ambitions.

This report includes input from Will Weissert of Big Big News in Washington.

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