Internal Conflict among Putin’s Subordinates Weakens Russia’s Preparedness for War, While His Hold on Power Remains Intact

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Yevgeny Prigozhin, the outspoken millionaire and head of the private military contractor Wagner, made a disturbing display of infighting among Russian military leaders. Standing before the bodies of his slain troops in Ukraine, he unleashed a barrage of expletive-laden insults, holding the military leadership responsible for the carnage.

In a country accustomed to over two decades of tightly controlled rule under President Vladimir Putin, Prigozhin’s video and subsequent rants against the military leaders have raised concerns. Putin’s silence on the matter, along with the lack of response from the military brass, is seen by some as an indication of potential shifts in Russia’s political landscape, setting the stage for further internal conflicts.

Prigozhin’s ongoing feud with the military leadership, largely ignored by state-controlled media, has found resonance among politically active and ultra-patriotic individuals on social media platforms. This growing dysfunction, anxiety, and resource mobilization challenges pose significant problems for Russia’s effective prosecution of the war, although there is no evidence of Putin’s waning influence.

The rift between Prigozhin and the military leaders has been escalating for years, culminating in open confrontation during the battle for the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, spearheaded by Prigozhin’s mercenaries. This has propelled the 62-year-old Wagner owner, known as “Putin’s chef” due to his lucrative Kremlin catering contracts, into the forefront of Russian politics, revealing his burgeoning ambitions.

Prigozhin has harshly criticized Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov, portraying them as weak and incompetent through mocking statements filled with vulgar language. He has even gone as far as accusing the army of planting mines along his fighters’ planned route and opening fire on them.

As the Ukrainian counteroffensive gains momentum, Prigozhin has accused the military brass of downplaying the threat and warned of potential collapse in Russian defenses. He has even requested the country’s top criminal investigation agency to probe Shoigu and Gerasimov, urging their prosecution for the deaths of tens of thousands of Russians and the surrender of territorial gains.

Prigozhin’s provocative remarks have taken him into uncharted territory, echoing Putin’s occasional breaches of decorum with earthy remarks or off-color jokes. However, Prigozhin’s direct criticism raises questions about the government’s authority during wartime, even though Putin’s usual approach involves dividing factions and intervening to decide winners and losers.

Amid Ukraine’s counteroffensive, the infighting persists, highlighting a lack of unified goals. Experts speculate that Putin’s failure to resolve political disputes stems from disinterest, a focus on other issues, or, more likely, a reluctance to take sides.

The absence of a response from military leaders to Prigozhin’s insults indicates their uncertainty about Putin’s support. Notably, St. Petersburg regional Gov. Alexander Beglov, another target of Prigozhin’s ire, has refrained from responding, further reinforcing the divisions.

Prigozhin has formed alliances with other hawkish officials, including Tula Gov. Alexei Dyumin, a former Putin bodyguard seen as a potential successor. He has also shown affinity towards Ramzan Kadyrov, the Moscow-backed regional leader of Chechnya, although some of these alliances have proven unstable.

While Kadyrov initially supported Prigozhin and endorsed his criticisms of military leaders, he later criticized him for sounding defeatist. Kadyrov’s right-hand man, Magomed Daudov, openly condemned Wagner’s actions in Bakhmut, stating that Prigozhin would have been executed for such statements during World War II. Prigozhin retracted his comments, claiming concern about Russian operations.

Prigozhin’s political ambitions remain unclear, but his recent nationwide tour and continued bombastic comments indicate a desire for political influence. Despite owing his position and wealth to Putin, Prigozhin has assumed the role of an outsider, criticizing certain leaders and attempting to appeal to the masses amidst setbacks in Ukraine. However, his political clout and prospects should not be overestimated, while Putin’s authority should not be underestimated.

There are indications that Putin’s administration is curbing Prigozhin’s influence. The Kremlin-connected messaging app channels recently showcased photos of Prigozhin’s indulgent children, including his daughter in Dubai, in an apparent retaliatory move for his attacks on the defense minister’s daughter. Additionally, Putin backed the Defense Ministry’s demand for private companies to sign contracts, a demand that Prigozhin refused.

In conclusion, the internal conflicts among Putin’s subordinates have undermined Russia’s preparedness for war, but Putin’s hold on power remains unshaken. Prigozhin’s provocative actions highlight growing dysfunction within the government, compromising effective military operations. However, the ultimate authority still rests with Putin, and he has the ability to quell any opposition, including that of Prigozhin.

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More about Internal Conflict

• Russia-Ukraine War Coverage – Big Big News: Coverage of the war in Ukraine by Big Big News.
• International Institute for Strategic Studies: The official website of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, which provides analysis and research on global security and political issues.
• Wagner Group – Private Military Contractor: Wikipedia page providing information about the Wagner Group, the private military contractor headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin.
• Vladimir Putin – President of Russia: Official website of the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin.
• Ramzan Kadyrov – Leader of Chechnya: Wikipedia page providing information about Ramzan Kadyrov, the Moscow-backed regional leader of Chechnya.
• Sergei Shoigu – Defense Minister of Russia: Wikipedia page providing information about Sergei Shoigu, the Defense Minister of Russia.
• Valery Gerasimov – Chief of the General Staff of Russia: Wikipedia page providing information about Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of Russia.