India’s Geopolitical Momentum Stumbles as It Faces a Diplomatic Quagmire at the United Nations

Having recently hosted the G20 Summit, India appeared to be on a geopolitical upswing. Prime Minister Narendra Modi successfully pushed for the African Union’s permanent membership, and also managed to unite the fragmented group to produce a conclusive statement. This series of events was lauded as a foreign policy victory for Modi, consolidating India’s emerging status as a significant global player.

However, Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, initially poised to capitalize on India’s newfound geopolitical prominence in his forthcoming United Nations speech, faces a changed landscape. Abrupt developments have left India grappling with a diplomatic crisis as it prepares to speak at the General Assembly.

Earlier this week, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made an unsettling accusation, suggesting possible Indian involvement in the death of a Sikh Canadian citizen in Vancouver in June. India vehemently dismissed these allegations as baseless. The fallout has been swift and severe: both countries have expelled a diplomat, India has suspended visa services for Canadians, and Ottawa has indicated it may scale back its consular staff due to safety concerns. This has led to a sharp deterioration in relations between India and Canada, marking a new low in their diplomatic history.

Underlying Strains Revealed

On the surface, the camaraderie between Trudeau and Modi appeared intact during the G20 summit. However, beneath this facade, the atmosphere was tense. Trudeau opted to skip an official dinner hosted by the Indian President and received a quick informal meeting rather than a substantive bilateral discussion with Modi. Adding insult to injury, Trudeau experienced a 36-hour delay due to a flight issue in New Delhi. Upon his return to Canada, Trudeau disclosed that he had brought up the allegations with Modi during the summit.

The sudden turn of events threatens to overshadow India’s successes at the G20 summit, according to Happymon Jacob, founder of the New Delhi-based Council for Strategic and Defense Research.

India’s Complex Relationship with the UN

India has long pursued a more prominent role within the United Nations, even advocating for a permanent seat on the Security Council. However, the nation has also been critical of the UN for its lack of representation that reflects the changing global landscape.

“India can’t be sidelined for much longer, given its demographic and economic significance,” Jaishankar stated in April, insisting that the UN Security Council would ultimately have to consider India for permanent membership. Despite receiving support from the United States, Britain, and Russia, bureaucratic inertia and potential opposition from China continue to be obstacles.

India’s Balancing Act in Global Politics

Unable to secure a position on the UN Security Council, Modi has deftly positioned India at the nexus of varying international alignments. India engages with the West through platforms like the Quad and the G20, while also seeking to broaden its reach in the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, where China and Russia hold considerable influence.

This delicate diplomatic balancing act has enhanced India’s global influence. Its decision to withhold condemnation of Russia for its actions in Ukraine has also found favor among many developing nations. The Western countries, viewing India as a counterweight to China, have similarly deepened their relationship with New Delhi.

Implications for India’s Global Standing

As the diplomatic row between Canada and India escalates, a critical question emerges: will this international debacle imperil India’s burgeoning relations with the West? The initial response from Western countries, including the United States, was subdued. However, subsequent statements from U.S. officials indicate growing concern.

Despite the absence of concrete evidence, Canadian sources assert that surveillance of Indian diplomats has substantiated the allegations, a claim confirmed by U.S. officials. This puts increased pressure on India to collaborate with Canadian authorities in the investigation.

At the upcoming United Nations assembly, there may be an opportunity for deescalation. Jaishankar could engage in sideline discussions with his Canadian counterpart, potentially with Washington playing a facilitating role. However, if the matter takes center stage at the UN, it could detract from India’s efforts to promote its accomplishments on a global scale.

“In sum, while there’s no expectation of Foreign Minister Jaishankar being shunned at the UN General Assembly, the last thing India wants is for the dispute with Canada to dominate its diplomatic narrative at such a critical global forum,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about India’s Diplomatic Crisis at the United Nations

More about India’s Diplomatic Crisis at the United Nations

• India’s Role in the Recent G20 Summit
• Profile of Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar
• Canada-India Diplomatic Crisis: Key Moments
• Michael Kugelman on India’s Foreign Policy Challenges
• Happymon Jacob’s Views on India’s Global Ambitions
• Overview of the Quad
• The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and India’s Role
• India’s UN Security Council Ambitions
• U.S.-India Relations Amid the Canada Row
• The ‘Five Eyes’ Intelligence Alliance and Its Role in the Canada-India Crisis