Implications for Putin: Russian Mercenaries’ Failed Revolt

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After a brief revolt by Russian mercenaries, the consequences for President Vladimir Putin and his ability to conduct military operations in Ukraine are expected to be far-reaching. The withdrawal of Russian government troops from the streets of Moscow allowed people to resume their daily activities, raising concerns about Putin’s hold on power and creating opportunities for dissenters. The leader of the Wagner troops, Yevgeny Prigozhin, led the march on the capital, but a late-night deal brokered by Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko ultimately halted their advance.

As part of the agreement, Prigozhin will go into exile in Belarus without facing prosecution, and his forces will also be spared. Since the announcement of the deal, neither Putin nor Prigozhin have made any public statements. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the events as “extraordinary” and emphasized the cracks emerging in the Russian government’s facade. The repercussions of this failed revolt are yet to be fully understood, but they pose new challenges that Putin will have to address in the coming months.

The impact of the 24-hour rebellion on the ongoing war in Ukraine remains uncertain. However, it resulted in the removal of some of Russia’s most capable forces fighting in Ukraine, including Prigozhin’s Wagner troops and Chechen units deployed to suppress the revolt. Ukrainian officials and analysts expressed hope that the internal strife within Russia could present opportunities for their own military, which is currently engaged in a counteroffensive to regain territory seized by Russian forces.

Furthermore, the fate of the Prigozhin-owned Wagner military contractor is uncertain. The company has deployed forces in several countries, serving Russian interests. Under the terms of the agreement that ended Prigozhin’s advance, Wagner troops who did not support the revolt will be offered contracts directly with the Russian military, effectively bringing them under the control of the military brass that Prigozhin sought to overthrow.

Observers speculate that the deal was hastily arranged to protect Prigozhin, his wealth, and his family. The question remains as to how many of his mercenaries will accompany him to Belarus, and how many will be compelled to sign contracts with the Russian military.

During the lightning advance on Saturday, Prigozhin’s forces seized control of two military hubs in southern Russia and came within 200 kilometers (120 miles) of Moscow before retreating. Videos captured the scene in Rostov-on-Don, where locals cheered the departing Wagner troops, and some even greeted Prigozhin personally. Reports confirmed that all the troops had left the city, and Wagner forces had also vacated the Lipetsk region on the road to Moscow.

In preparation for the arrival of Wagner forces, Moscow had set up checkpoints with armored vehicles and deployed troops on the city’s southern edge. Around 3,000 Chechen soldiers were hastily withdrawn from the Ukrainian front and sent to Moscow. Russian troops armed with machine guns established checkpoints on the outskirts of the capital, while sections of highways were dug up to impede the march.

By Sunday afternoon, the troops had completely withdrawn from Moscow, allowing people to return to the streets and cafés. Traffic resumed its normal flow, roadblocks and checkpoints were dismantled, but Red Square remained closed to visitors. Repair crews swiftly restored the roads that had been torn up during the panic.

State-controlled television stations portrayed the crisis-ending deal as a testament to Putin’s wisdom, featuring footage of Wagner troops retreating from Rostov-on-Don to the relief of local residents who feared a violent battle for control of the city. Individuals interviewed by Channel 1 expressed admiration for Putin’s role in resolving the situation.

However, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War cautioned that the Kremlin now faces a highly unstable equilibrium. They characterized the deal as a short-term fix rather than a long-term solution. Prigozhin had demanded the removal of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, whom he had long criticized for his handling of the war in Ukraine.

Contrary to Prigozhin’s claim that the rebellion was in response to an attack on his camps in Ukraine by the Russian military, U.S. intelligence had indicated that Prigozhin had been amassing forces near the Russian border for some time. The Defense Ministry denied attacking the camps.

One possible motive behind Prigozhin’s rebellion was the Russian Defense Ministry’s demand, supported by Putin, that private companies sign contracts with them by July 1. Prigozhin had refused to comply.

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• Prigozhin-owned Wagner Military Contractor and its Uncertain Future
• Moscow’s Response to the Revolt and its Impact on the City