Impending State Elections in Germany Foreseen to Favor Conservative Opposition

Two upcoming state elections in Germany are scheduled for this Sunday, occurring at a time when Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s national administration is facing declining popularity. Current polling data indicates a substantial lead for the center-right opposition parties, while Germany’s Interior Minister confronts significant challenges in her endeavor to secure the gubernatorial position in her native state.

Approximately 9.4 million citizens are qualified to vote in the Bavarian state election, and another 4.3 million in the neighboring state of Hesse, which encompasses Germany’s financial epicenter, Frankfurt. Both states are currently governed by Germany’s primary opposition coalition, the Union bloc, consisting of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU), the latter being specific to Bavaria.

The forthcoming results have the potential to amplify internal discord within Scholz’s tripartite coalition, already beset by internal conflicts, and may offer insights into potential challengers for the 2025 national elections. Polling suggests that the CSU, having governed Bavaria since 1957, is likely to extend its governance, albeit with historically low levels of support falling below 40%. In Hesse, the CDU is projected to have a notable lead in a triangular competition against Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats and the Greens.

The far-right party, Alternative for Germany, although currently second in national polling, is unlikely to influence the formation of state governments in either Bavaria or Hesse, as mainstream parties have declined to collaborate with it. Nevertheless, attention will be focused on whether it can build upon its previous double-digit electoral performances.

Prominent political scientist Karl-Rudolf Korte, in an interview with Welt am Sonntag, noted that the dismal performance expected for the governing coalition parties—the Social Democrats, the Greens, and the pro-business Free Democrats—is largely due to a lack of public trust in their capability to address Germany’s challenges effectively. This is attributed to both ongoing crises and poor communication strategies from the coalition.

Public disenchantment has also been fueled by frequent internal disagreements within the coalition, particularly concerning the transition from fossil-fuel heating systems to more sustainable alternatives. Current polls suggest that the Free Democrats may find it challenging to achieve the 5% electoral threshold required for representation in both state legislatures, a factor that has previously aggravated tensions within the federal government.

Immigration remains a pressing issue, putting additional strain on the Scholz administration in the lead-up to the elections. Should Interior Minister Nancy Faeser succeed in her gubernatorial bid in Hesse—a prospect appearing increasingly unlikely—Scholz would need to appoint a new lead on the immigration issue. Meanwhile, Green candidate Tarek Al-Wazir, currently serving as deputy governor, also faces a difficult path ahead.

In Bavaria, incumbent Governor Markus Soeder advocates for voters to support “continuity and stability.” He is committed to sustaining his existing coalition with the Free Voters, a local conservative party not represented at the national level. Despite recent controversies surrounding his deputy governor, Hubert Aiwanger, Soeder remains steadfast in his partnership. While Soeder has dismissed speculation regarding his intentions to contest the 2025 national elections, a solid electoral performance this Sunday could bolster his political standing.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about German state elections

More about German state elections

• Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Current Administration
• Overview of Christian Democratic Union (CDU)
• History and Role of Christian Social Union (CSU)
• Alternative for Germany Party in German Politics
• Political Scientist Karl-Rudolf Korte’s Publications
• German State Electoral System
• Free Democrats and Their Role in German Politics
• Markus Soeder’s Political Career
• Profile of Interior Minister Nancy Faeser
• The Tripartite Coalition in Germany’s Federal Government