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Global Rice Shortage Causes Prices to Skyrocket, and the Situation May Deteriorate

by Michael Nguyen
5 comments
rice shortage

Certainly, below is the paraphrased text:

Francis Ndege, a seller in the largest slum in Africa, is uncertain if his customers can continue purchasing rice due to skyrocketing prices.

Previously, the price of Kenyan-grown rice increased due to escalated fertilizer costs and a persistent drought in the Horn of Africa, reducing production. Affordable rice from India helped bridge this gap, nourishing many of Nairobi’s Kibera slum residents who live on under $2 daily.

This dynamic is now shifting. The cost of a 25-kilogram bag of rice has escalated by nearly 20% since June, moving from about $14 to $18. Wholesalers are still waiting for new stock as India, the leading exporter of rice globally, announced last month a ban on specific rice shipments.

This has left an immense deficit of approximately 9.5 million metric tons of rice, constituting around a fifth of worldwide exports.

Ndege, who has sold rice for three decades, voices concern about continued imports.

Others share his worries. International food security is already jeopardized due to Russia’s cessation of a wheat export agreement with Ukraine and the El Nino weather pattern affecting rice production. Now, rice costs are surging — for example, Vietnam’s export prices are at a 15-year peak, endangering the most susceptible populations in impoverished countries.

The globe stands at a critical juncture, according to Beau Damen of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization in Bangkok.

Even prior to India’s limitations, nations were eagerly purchasing rice, foreseeing shortages later due to El Nino, leading to a supply squeeze and price surge.

Further exacerbation could occur if India’s non-basmati rice ban prompts other countries to follow suit. The United Arab Emirates has already ceased rice exports to preserve domestic supplies. Additional threats include extreme weather harming rice crops in other nations.

An El Nino, a periodic and temporary warming of part of the Pacific, alters global weather. Climate change is intensifying these events. The current El Nino may reach extraordinary levels, and in the past, these have caused severe weather from droughts to floods.

This effect will have global repercussions. African nations are increasingly dependent on rice imports. While some, like Senegal, are attempting to increase domestic production, many face challenges.

In Senegal, imported rice has become unaffordable for people like Amadou Khan, forcing them to rely on cost-effective domestic rice.

Senegal may seek alternative trading partners such as Thailand or Cambodia, although the nation is attempting to be more self-sufficient in rice, according to Agriculture Ministry spokesperson Mamadou Aïcha Ndiaye.

Asian countries, where 90% of the world’s rice is both grown and consumed, grapple with production challenges. Typhoon Doksuri recently damaged $32 million worth of rice crops in the Philippines, about 22% of its annual yield.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines emphasizes the necessity of maintaining adequate reserves.

India’s rice restrictions stem from unpredictable weather conditions, leading to the partial ban to curb food prices, explains Indian food policy expert Devinder Sharma.

The constraints will result in a nearly 50% reduction in India’s customary rice exports this year, says Ashok Gulati of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relation. Repeated limitations have made India an unstable exporter.

Vietnam, another significant rice exporter, seeks to benefit from the situation. With export prices at a 15-year high, the country aims to stabilize domestic costs while enhancing exports.

Vietnam’s Agriculture Ministry plans to expand the rice-growing area in the Mekong Delta by nearly 500 square kilometers.

Negotiations are underway with the Philippines to acquire grain at reduced prices, and Vietnam is also targeting the UK market.

Exporters in neighboring countries like Thailand remain cautious due to uncertainties about India’s future actions and concerns regarding El Nino.

The volatile nature of prices makes it difficult for exporters to set quotes, leading to reluctance among Thai exporters to take orders, according to Charoen Laothamatas, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association.

With the continual fluctuation in prices, the risk seems too great for anyone to bear, Laothamatas observed.


Reports from Hanoi, Vietnam, and Nairobi, Kenya were contributed by Ghosal and Musambi. Additional insights were provided by AP reporters Krutika Pathi in New Delhi; Zane Irwin in Dakar, Senegal; Jintamas Saksornchai in Bangkok; and Jim Gomez in Manila, Philippines.


The climate and environmental coverage by Big Big News is supported by several private foundations. More details about AP’s climate initiative are available. The AP holds sole responsibility for all content.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about rice shortage

What is causing the global rice shortage?

The global rice shortage is caused by a combination of factors including higher fertilizer prices, a yearslong drought in the Horn of Africa, India’s ban on certain rice shipments, and the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon. Other factors include increased buying in anticipation of scarcity and extreme weather damaging crops in various countries.

How has the rice shortage affected prices?

Rice prices have soared across the world. For instance, the cost of a 25-kilogram bag of rice has risen by about a fifth since June, and Vietnam’s rice export prices have reached a 15-year high.

What impact does the shortage have on food security?

Global food security is under threat due to the rice shortage. The most vulnerable populations in some of the poorest nations are at risk, and the situation is considered to be at an “inflection point” according to U.N. experts.

How are countries responding to the rice shortage?

Some countries like Vietnam are trying to capitalize on the situation by boosting exports. Others like Senegal are looking to alternative trading partners. Many countries are frantically buying rice in anticipation of further scarcity, and some, like the United Arab Emirates, have suspended rice exports to maintain domestic stocks.

What role does El Nino play in the rice shortage?

An El Nino is a natural and occasional warming of part of the Pacific Ocean that affects global weather patterns. In this situation, it’s hampering rice production, and climate change is making El Ninos stronger. The current El Nino is expected to expand to supersized levels, which have historically resulted in extreme weather ranging from drought to flooding, further impacting rice production.

How are individual families coping with the rice shortage?

Families are struggling with the shortage, particularly in impoverished areas. Some are forced to eat less costly homegrown rice or skip meals. In places like Senegal, imported rice, primarily from India, has become prohibitively expensive, making the situation particularly challenging for low-income families.

More about rice shortage

  • UN Food and Agriculture Organization
  • Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relation
  • AP’s climate initiative
  • Thai Rice Exporters Association
  • World Rice Statistics
  • El Nino Weather Phenomenon Information

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5 comments

Sarah McKenzie August 23, 2023 - 2:42 am

can’t belive how much the price of rice has gone up recently. Just last month, I noticed a huge jump in the grocery store.

Reply
Laura Simmons August 23, 2023 - 7:15 am

Rice is a staple in so many cultures. this shortage is gonna hit a lot of families hard, especially those who rely on it as their primary source of food.

Reply
James Thompson August 23, 2023 - 11:13 am

The situation seems dire, hope goverments act fast. What happens if the El Nino grows even stronger?

Reply
Mike Chen August 23, 2023 - 11:24 am

I wonder how this will impact our local farmers. And what about other crops, could there be more shortages on the way.

Reply
Kumar Patel August 23, 2023 - 12:06 pm

In India, we are already feeling the pinch. Govt must take measures to ensure food security and not just focus on the export business.

Reply

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