El Niño Winter Forecast: Implications for the United States

The forthcoming winter season in the United States is predicted to experience reduced snowfall and fewer instances of extreme cold, according to recent announcements by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Forecasts indicate that northern regions will likely experience above-average warmth, while southern areas can expect increased precipitation and storm activity.

The presence of a strong El Niño is expected to significantly alter and moderate the usual storm tracks that the U.S. encounters between December and February. This alteration is further compounded by the impacts of climate change and unusually warm ocean temperatures. Jon Gottschalk, who leads operations at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, stated that such climatic conditions could transform storms that would usually result in snowfall into rain events in the northern parts of the country. However, there is a potential for a couple of significant Nor’easters that could bring more snowfall than usual to the East Coast, particularly the Mid-Atlantic region.

Temperature-wise, the majority of the U.S. is projected to be warmer than historical averages, extending northward from states like Tennessee, Missouri, Nebraska, and Nevada, as well as nearly encompassing California. NOAA does not foresee any region of the country experiencing cooler-than-average temperatures this winter. Gottschalk emphasized that the highest likelihood for warmer conditions is concentrated in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and northern New England.

Increased precipitation is also anticipated across a large southern belt of the country, stretching from Massachusetts down the East Coast and continuing westward through states like Texas, Kansas, Colorado, Utah, and Nevada. However, the forecast also shows drier-than-average conditions for the Great Lakes region and the far northern parts of the United States, ranging from Lake Erie to eastern Washington.

The dominant force behind these forecasted weather patterns is El Niño—a recurring natural phenomenon characterized by periodic warming of certain areas of the Pacific Ocean. El Niño tends to affect global weather patterns and is known to raise global temperatures. It has its most potent impact in the United States during the winter season, redirecting the jet stream in a manner that typically results in warmer and wetter conditions, particularly affecting states like Florida with unusual severe weather events.

In addition, adjustments in the jet stream can create conditions for storms along the East Coast to draw moisture from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, resulting in heavy snowfall events in major eastern cities. However, these are dependent on a variety of factors and timing, and are therefore not expected to be frequent.

NOAA researchers also underscored the role of climate change as a contributing factor to their winter forecasts. Data indicates that the average winter temperature in the Lower 48 states has increased by approximately 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit over the past four decades.

External meteorologists, including Judah Cohen of Atmospheric Environmental Research, generally concur with NOAA’s winter projections. Cohen’s models, which also consider fall snow cover in Siberia and the behavior of the polar vortex, suggest an overall mild winter.

Private weather service AccuWeather presents a somewhat divergent view, predicting less warmth than NOAA in certain southern states, but also anticipates below-average snowfall in several major northern cities.

In summary, the United States can expect a winter marked by warmer and wetter conditions in various regions, largely due to the influence of a strong El Niño, compounded by climate change and other meteorological factors.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about El Niño winter forecast

More about El Niño winter forecast

• NOAA’s Official Winter Outlook
• Understanding El Niño
• Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Weather
• Judah Cohen’s Winter Forecast Analysis
• AccuWeather’s Winter Forecast
• AP Climate and Environment Section
• Seth Borenstein’s Climate Reporting
• Climate Change Data and Trends