Dwindling Faith in Democracy in Slovakia Coincides with Front-Runner’s Anti-Ukraine Stance in Upcoming Elections

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Robert Fico, the ex-Prime Minister who has twice helmed Slovakia and now leads in the polls for the upcoming September 30 election, is explicitly campaigning against providing military and political support to neighboring Ukraine. This represents a formidable challenge to both the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Fico, the leader of the left-wing Direction, also known as the Smer party, has been actively promoting a pro-Russian and anti-American agenda. His political trajectory is reflective of a broader trend in Europe where populism is on the rise, manifesting in growing skepticism towards involvement in Ukraine. Several European nations with upcoming elections may witness a shift in public sentiment from supporting Kyiv to aligning more closely with Moscow.

In a recent interview with The Big Big News, Fico stated that if his party is part of the new government, it will discontinue sending arms and munitions to Ukraine. Known for his harsh verbal attacks on journalists, Fico is a current member of the Slovak parliament.

Slovakia, a nation formed in 1993 after the dissolution of Czechoslovakia, has been a strong ally of Ukraine since Russia’s invasion more than 18 months ago. The country was the second NATO member to donate Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets and an S-300 air defense system to Ukraine. Despite this, public trust in liberal democracy and Western organizations has been waning, surpassing the decline seen in other parts of Central Europe that were once under Soviet rule.

According to a survey by the Bratislava-based Globsec think tank, more than half of Slovak respondents blame either the West or Ukraine for the ongoing conflict. There has also been an increase in the perception of the United States as a security threat. The survey indicates that only 48% of Slovaks believe that liberal democracy is beneficial for their nation.

In February of last year, Slovakia opened its borders to Ukrainian refugees and sent arms to Kyiv. Yet, there remains significant pro-Russian sentiment in Slovakia, fueled in part by Russian disinformation campaigns that are now prevalent in the Slovak media landscape.

Fico also opposes the European Union sanctions on Russia and questions the capabilities of the Ukrainian military to repel the Russian invaders. He seeks to leverage Slovakia’s NATO membership to obstruct Ukraine’s path to joining the alliance. His return to power could potentially lead Slovakia further away from democratic governance, in line with what has occurred in Hungary under Prime Minister Viktor Orban and, to a lesser extent, in Poland.

Fico’s stance complicates Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO, particularly in light of a recent summit where the alliance members stated they would consider Ukraine’s membership when certain conditions are met. During the summit, Fico argued that offering Ukraine NATO membership could potentially trigger a “Third World War.”

This shift in Slovak politics comes against a backdrop of frustration due to the collapse of a center-right coalition government last December and a surge in pro-Russian disinformation following Ukraine’s invasion. Fico’s party, which also campaigns against immigration and LGBTQ+ rights, has adopted and amplified these Russian narratives.

Fico’s radicalized position, which includes repeating Russian claims about the Ukraine conflict, resonates with many in Slovakia. This has led observers like Grigorij Meseznikov, president of the Institute for Public Affairs, to comment that Fico’s current public persona is the most extreme and genuine he has been in his political career.

Fico has demonstrated inconsistent foreign policy positions in the past. While he courted Russian President Vladimir Putin after the annexation of Crimea, he also negotiated a defense treaty with the U.S. in 2018, although he subsequently organized protests against the treaty.

Fico’s party lost in the 2020 elections due to an anti-immigrant campaign and its tarnished reputation, which was mired in corruption scandals. Despite facing criminal charges last year for abuse of power, Fico’s prospects in the snap parliamentary election look promising, according to most public polls.

In summary, Robert Fico’s anticipated return to power, as signaled by current polling, could significantly alter Slovakia’s stance toward both Ukraine and broader European geopolitics, signaling a challenging time ahead for advocates of liberal democracy and Western alignment.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Slovakia’s election and Western alliances

More about Slovakia’s election and Western alliances

• Election Commission of Slovakia: Official Voting Data
• European Union: Slovakia’s Current Status
• NATO Official Website: Slovakia’s Contributions
• Political Analysis: Slovakia’s 2023 Election Scenarios
• Slovakia’s Foreign Policy Archive: Past and Present
• Trade and Investment: Economic Impact of Slovakia’s Foreign Policy
• Social and Economic Indicators: Slovakia 2023
• Expert Opinions: Foreign Policy Implications of Slovakia’s 2023 Elections