Deadline Looms for Niger’s Junta as Residents Brace for Uncertain Future

The deadline, set for Sunday, has arrived, demanding that Niger’s military junta reinstates the ousted president, but the West African regional bloc, ECOWAS, which has threatened military intervention, faces significant appeals for a more peaceful approach.

On the eve of the deadline, Nigeria’s Senate opposed ECOWAS’s plan, urging the bloc’s current chair, Nigeria’s president, to explore non-violent options. Despite the warning, ECOWAS can still proceed, as decisions are made by consensus among member states. Nonetheless, doubts have been raised about the fate of the intervention.

Notably, Algeria and Chad, non-ECOWAS neighbors with strong militaries in the region, have voiced their opposition to the use of force or any military involvement. Additionally, neighboring countries Mali and Burkina Faso, both governed by juntas, perceive any intervention as a potential “declaration of war” against them.

The ousted President, Mohamed Bazoum, claims to be “held hostage” by the mutinous soldiers. An attempt by an ECOWAS delegation to meet with the junta’s leader, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, was unsuccessful. The junta has now sought assistance from the Russian mercenary group Wagner while severing security ties with former colonizer France.

As the deadline approached, hundreds of youth joined security forces in Niger’s capital, Niamey, patrolling the darkened streets at roundabouts, checking cars for weapons, and heeding the junta’s call to watch out for foreign intervention and spies.

The situation remains uncertain as it is unclear what ECOWAS will do next. Some experts have criticized the bloc for granting the junta a one-week deadline instead of limiting it to 48 hours, as it has allowed the junta to consolidate its position.

The coup in Niger has dealt a significant blow to the United States and its allies, as the country was considered a crucial partner in counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel region, where jihadist groups affiliated with al-Qaida and the Islamic State have been expanding their activities, posing a threat to coastal states like Benin, Ghana, and Togo.

The United States, France, and European countries have provided substantial military assistance to Niger, but the coup has put their efforts and the presence of their troops in question. The insecurity in Niger has further exacerbated the already dire living conditions of its 25 million inhabitants, with rising food prices and economic and travel sanctions imposed by ECOWAS following the coup.

Despite the security concerns expressed by the coup leaders, data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project shows a decrease in conflict incidents by nearly 40% compared to the previous six months, contrasting with the surging attacks in Mali and Burkina Faso.

In light of the humanitarian consequences and the struggles faced by Niger’s population, some residents believe that military intervention is not the solution to their problems.

The situation remains fluid, with many uncertainties surrounding the future of Niger and its governance.

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• AP: Deadline has arrived for Niger’s junta to reinstate the president
• Al Jazeera: Nigeria’s Senate opposes ECOWAS military intervention plan
• Barron’s: Algeria and Chad oppose use of force in Niger
• ABC News: Neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso against intervention in Niger
• Reuters: Niger junta leader reaches out to Wagner for assistance
• Sahara Reporters: Youth join security forces in Niger’s capital ahead of deadline
• Atlantic Council: Expert opinion on the junta’s deadline
• U.S. Department of State: U.S. relations with Niger
• BBC News: ECOWAS sanctions impact on Niger’s population
• Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project: Conflict data in Niger