Climate Change Exacerbates Wildfires and Smoke, Termed the ‘New Abnormal’

The scent triggered memories for both Emily Kuchlbauer in North Carolina and Ryan Bomba in Chicago. It was the smoky odor emanating from wildfires, a reminder of a world that is increasingly hotter and occasionally ablaze.

Kuchlbauer recalled the surprise of finding soot covering her car three years ago when she was a recent college graduate in San Diego. Bomba experienced déjà vu from San Francisco, where the air was so heavily polluted with smoke that people had to wear masks. They had assumed they left behind the concerns of wildfires when they moved away from California, but now Canada, burning from coast to coast, has brought the visceral impacts of climate change to regions that once seemed immune.

“This feels apocalyptic because, in California, it’s seen as normal. It’s just what happens on the West Coast. But here, it’s definitely not normal,” expressed Kuchlbauer.

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According to scientists, as Earth’s climate continues to change due to the emission of heat-trapping gases, fewer people are spared from the suffocating and deadly grasp of wildfire smoke. The area consumed by wildfires in the United States and Canada each year has tripled compared to the 1980s, and studies indicate that fires and the resulting smoke will worsen.

While many people exposed to poor air quality may wonder if this is the “new normal,” numerous scientists reject such terminology. They argue that referring to it as the “new normal” implies that the world has transitioned into a new and stable pattern of extreme events.

“This isn’t a new normal; it’s a new abnormal,” stated Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania. “The situation continues to deteriorate. If we keep warming the planet, we won’t reach a new state. It’s an ever-shifting baseline of worsening conditions.”

The severity of the situation has led some scientists, including Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, to suggest reevaluating the term “wildfire.”

“We can no longer label them as wildfires,” Francis explained. “In many ways, they are no longer wild or natural. We are contributing to their increased frequency and intensity.”

Several scientists interviewed by the AP emphasized that the problem of smoke and wildfires will continue to worsen until there is a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions—a goal that has not been achieved despite years of international negotiations and lofty targets.

Wildfires in North America are escalating, consuming more land. Even before July, traditionally the busiest month for fires in the country, Canada had already surpassed its previous record with 31,432 square miles (81,409 square kilometers) burned—a nearly 15% increase.

“A year like this could occur with or without climate change, but rising temperatures have made it much more likely,” said A. Park Williams, a bioclimatologist at UCLA who studies fire and water. “Especially in the West, we are witnessing significant increases in smoke exposure and a decline in air quality due to heightened fire activity.”

Numerous studies have established a link between climate change and the increased frequency of fires in North America. Global warming contributes to extreme weather patterns, particularly droughts, primarily in the western regions.

As the atmosphere dries out, it leaches moisture from plants, providing more fuel that ignites easier, spreads faster, and burns more intensely. In addition, the surge in lightning strikes from more frequent storms—some of which are dry lightning strikes—contributes to the problem, according to Mike Flannigan, a Canadian fire scientist at Thompson Rivers University in British Columbia. Warmer weather is extending the fire season, with fires starting earlier and lingering longer.

“We must learn to coexist with fire and smoke; it’s our new reality,” remarked Flannigan.

Ronak Bhatia, who moved from California to Illinois in 2018 for college and now resides in Chicago, initially found it amusing that wildfire smoke seemed to follow him and his friends from the West Coast. However, if the situation persists, it will no longer be a laughing matter.

“It makes you contemplate climate change and how it could potentially impact any place,” Bhatia expressed. “It’s not just a problem for California or Australia; it’s a global issue.”

On average, wildfires in the United States now consume about 12,000 square miles (31,000 square kilometers) annually, roughly the size of Maryland. In the period from 1983 to 1987, when the National Interagency Fire Center began recording statistics, only around 3,300 square miles (8,546 square kilometers) burned each year.

Over the past five years, including a record-low 2020, Canada has witnessed an average of 12,279 square miles (31,803 square kilometers) burned—an area three and a half times larger than the average from 1983 to 1987.

The magnitude of fires seen in western Canada this year aligns with scientific predictions for the 2030s and 2040s. Eastern Canada, known for its higher precipitation, was not anticipated to experience fire seasons like this until the mid-21st century, noted Flannigan.

If the eastern part of Canada is burning, it implies that eastern states in the US will likely face the same fate sooner than researchers anticipated, Flannigan added. He and Williams pointed to the devastating fires in Gatlinburg, Tennessee, which claimed 14 lives in 2016 during a brief drought in the East.

Although America experienced more extensive fires in the past, it was because fires were left uncontrolled and posed less of a threat. The western regions used to witness larger and regular fires until the mid-19th century, but the settlement of more land and subsequent firefighting efforts by the US government changed that, particularly after the major Yellowstone fire in 1910, explained Williams.

Since the 1950s, the United States had largely minimized wildfires, but that changed around 2000.

“We believed we had it under control, but we were mistaken,” said Williams. “The climate has changed so dramatically that we lost our grip on it.”

The Arctic region is warming three times faster than the rest of the Earth, causing the temperature difference between the Arctic and mid-latitudes to diminish during the summer. This weakened contrast allows the high-altitude jet stream to meander and become stuck, prolonging episodes of adverse weather, as highlighted by Mann and Francis. Other scientists are awaiting more evidence regarding the impact of prolonged stagnant weather patterns.

A recent study published on June 23 found a connection between prolonged weather patterns and reduced snow cover in North America during spring.

For individuals exposed to the noxious air resulting from wildfire smoke, increasing health risks have become part of the new reality.

Wildfires expose approximately 44 million people worldwide to unhealthy air each year, leading to around 677,000 deaths annually, with nearly 39% of those deaths occurring in children, according to a 2021 study from the United Kingdom.

A study examining twelve years of wildfire smoke exposure in Washington state revealed a 1% increase in the likelihood of non-traumatic deaths for all age groups on the same day as the smoke’s arrival, rising to 2% on the following day. The risk of respiratory deaths rose by 14%, and for adults aged 45 to 64, the increase was even more significant at 35%.

Based on peer-reviewed studies, the Health Effects Institute estimated that the chief pollutant in wildfire smoke—known as PM2.5—was responsible for 4 million deaths worldwide in 2019, including nearly 48,000 deaths in the United States.

The tiny particles comprising PM2.5 are the perfect size to penetrate deep into the lungs and be absorbed into the bloodstream. However, the composition of these particles also plays a crucial role, according to Kris Ebi, a climate and health scientist at the University of Washington.

“There is emerging evidence that the toxicity of PM2.5 from wildfire smoke exceeds that of vehicle emissions,” Ebi stated.

The aftermath of wildfires can give rise to a range of health issues, extending beyond irritated eyes and scratchy throats. Ed Avol, professor emeritus at the Keck School of Medicine at the University of Southern California, explained that the long-term effects can affect the entire body. These include respiratory problems such as asthma and COPD, as well as impacts on heart, brain, and kidney function.

“Climate change and the unfortunate reality of wildfire smoke won’t disappear because we haven’t taken enough timely action to make a difference,” added Avol. While individuals can take steps like wearing masks or using air filters to protect themselves, we are ultimately “lagging behind in our response.”

Reported by Seth Borenstein from Washington and Melina Walling from Chicago.

Follow AP’s coverage of climate and environmental issues at https://bigbignews.net/climate-and-environment.

Follow Seth Borenstein and Melina Walling on Twitter at @borenbears and @MelinaWalling.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about climate change

More about climate change

• Climate Change and Wildfires – NASA
• Wildfire Smoke and Health – CDC
• The Relationship Between Climate Change and Wildfires – UCSUSA
• Air Quality and Health Effects of Wildfire Smoke – EPA