Biden sees hopeful signs for his reelection in Democrats’ 2023 wins. Others in his party are worried

President Joe Biden recently addressed a gathering of Democratic donors at a glass art gallery in Chicago, seeking to reassure them despite his low approval ratings. He candidly joked about the possibility of making mistakes, drawing laughter from the audience. However, concerns persist within the Democratic Party regarding a perceived gap between the popularity of Biden’s agenda and his personal standing, as his approval ratings remain sluggish, and age-related concerns among voters linger.

The recent Democratic victories in Kentucky, Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania offered a glimmer of hope for the White House. These wins provided a brief respite in a challenging week marked by the administration’s handling of ongoing conflicts and Biden’s lackluster poll numbers, with only 38% of adults approving of his job performance, according to a November Big Big News-NORC poll.

Despite these victories, external observers remain skeptical about whether these off-year wins will translate into Biden’s reelection or broader Democratic success in the upcoming year. Ohio, once a pivotal swing state, is a prime example. Even though a Democrat-backed measure on abortion rights succeeded there, it is unlikely that Biden will compete strongly in the state next year, according to Ohio-based progressive leader Nina Turner. She pointed out a waning support for Biden among young voters, particularly from communities of color, suggesting that optimism within Biden’s camp may be misplaced.

Former Rep. John Yarmuth of Kentucky also expressed concerns about Biden’s prospects against a generic Democrat. Yarmuth worried that Biden might not fare as well as expected against former President Donald Trump, given the current circumstances. However, no major Democrats have yet challenged Biden’s candidacy.

Biden’s team contends that the recent election results validate key issues that will form the core of the president’s reelection campaign, including abortion rights, democracy, and legislative achievements like the infrastructure law. They argue that focusing on the issues and sharp contrasts with “MAGA Republicans” will be a winning strategy. According to Julie Chavez Rodriguez, Biden’s campaign manager, the actual votes cast in the elections matter more than polling numbers.

Jim Messina, who managed Barack Obama’s successful reelection in 2012, suggested that the Biden campaign should not change tactics at this point. He emphasized the need to make the election a clear choice between Biden and Trump, rather than getting too caught up in the Republican primary.

Rep. Ro Khanna of California, a former supporter of Bernie Sanders who now backs Biden, stressed the importance of a robust domestic economic message. He noted that many voters are dissatisfied with Biden’s economic leadership, as indicated by a November AP-NORC poll that showed only 33% approval on the economy.

In Pennsylvania, concerns about Biden’s age persist, but some hope that a matchup against Trump, who faces legal challenges and is also unpopular with much of the American public, could work in Biden’s favor.

Overall, while the recent election victories provide a positive sign for the Biden campaign, there are still significant challenges ahead as they prepare for the 2024 election.

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More about Biden’s Reelection Prospects

• Big Big News-NORC poll
• Barack Obama’s successful reelection
• AP-NORC poll