AP Election Brief | Anticipated Developments in the Texas General Election

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Leading the roster of noteworthy contests in the upcoming Texas election on Tuesday are the mayoral races in Houston and Uvalde, alongside 14 proposed amendments to the state constitution.

Uvalde, a town scarred by the tragic events of May 2022 when a gunman claimed the lives of 19 students and two teachers at Robb Elementary School, will choose a new mayor for the first time since that fateful incident. Among the candidates is Kimberly Mata-Rubio, a former news reporter who tragically lost her daughter in the shooting. Cody Smith, the former Mayor of Uvalde, is also in the running, as well as elementary school teacher Veronica Martinez.

Meanwhile, in Houston, a crowded field of 17 candidates is vying to succeed term-limited Mayor Sylvester Turner. This includes prominent figures like long-serving U.S. Representative Sheila Jackson Lee and state Senator John Whitmire, both representing the Democratic party. A televised debate last month saw many of the candidates engage in discussions. Notably, Jackson Lee recently expressed remorse over an audio recording purportedly capturing her berating staff members. Should no candidate secure a majority of the vote on Tuesday, the two highest vote-getters will proceed to a runoff.

The statewide ballot features 14 proposed amendments to the Texas constitution, encompassing a range of topics, including restrictions on farming regulations, tax incentives for child care centers, the expansion of high-speed internet access, enhanced benefits for retired teachers, the establishment of a retirement age for state judges, and funding allocations for parks, water projects, and electricity plants.

As we approach election night, here’s a preview of what to expect:

ELECTION DAY

The Texas general election is scheduled for Tuesday, with polls closing at 7 p.m. local time. The majority of Texas falls within the Central time zone, although a small section in west Texas follows the Mountain time zone. Consequently, polls in most of the state will close at 8 p.m. ET, while those in the rest of the state will close at 9 p.m. ET.

WHAT’S INCLUDED ON THE BALLOT?

The Big Big News will provide comprehensive coverage of and announce winners in 17 races across Texas. These races include mayoral contests in Houston and Uvalde, a special election for a state House seat, and 14 statewide ballot initiatives.

WHO IS ELIGIBLE TO VOTE?

All registered voters have the opportunity to participate in the general election.

DECISION CONSIDERATIONS

In historical context, off-year elections involving statewide ballot measures, special elections, and local offices typically experience lower voter turnout. In a closely contested race, especially in smaller communities like Uvalde or in a state House special election, the margin between the leading and second-place candidates might be relatively narrow, potentially causing a delay in declaring a winner as absentee, provisional, or uncounted ballots could hold sway in determining the outcome.

For races necessitating a runoff, the determination of whether a candidate has surpassed the mandatory majority vote threshold could postpone the final result announcement. If the frontrunner hovers close to the 50% mark, the race may remain undecided until additional votes are tallied. The AP will either declare winners in races where a candidate has clearly secured over 50% of the vote or declare that no candidate has obtained a majority, prompting a runoff.

The AP does not engage in projections and will only declare a winner when it is unequivocal that there is no feasible scenario in which trailing candidates (or ballot measure options) can close the gap. If a race remains uncalled, the AP will continue to cover significant developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory, while explicitly stating that no winner has been declared and elucidating the reasons behind this decision.

Texas mandates automatic recounts solely in the event of a tied vote. Nevertheless, the state maintains lenient regulations regarding candidate-initiated recounts. A losing candidate can request and fund a recount if the margin between the top candidates is less than 10% of the leading candidate’s total votes. Losing candidates can also request recounts in any race with fewer than 1,000 total votes. The AP may announce a winner in a race that qualifies for a recount if it can determine that the lead is insurmountable through a recount or legal challenge.

TURNOUT AND EARLY VOTING

As of January, Texas boasts 17.5 million registered voters, with no party-specific voter registration.

In the 2021 general election focused on statewide ballot measures, voter turnout amounted to 9% of registered voters. This marked a slight decrease from the 2019 general election for ballot measures, which witnessed a 12% turnout among registered voters. In contrast, the 2022 gubernatorial general election recorded a turnout of 46% of registered voters.

By the end of October, a total of 712,347 voters had already cast their ballots prior to Election Day. Of these, 94% voted early in person, while the remaining 6% voted by mail. In the 2021 statewide ballot measure general election, 46% of all votes were cast before Election Day, showing an increase from the 39% recorded in the 2019 ballot measure election.

TIMELINE FOR VOTE COUNTING

In the 2022 general election, the AP initially reported results at 8 p.m. ET, coinciding with the closure of polls in the Central time zone. By the following morning at 11:52, 99.6% of all votes had been tabulated.

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More about Texas Election Brief

• Texas General Election Information
• Houston Mayoral Candidates
• Texas State Constitution Amendments
• Texas Voter Registration
• Associated Press Election Coverage