Americans agree that the 2024 election will be pivotal for democracy, but for different reasons

In the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election, Americans find themselves in broad agreement on one critical issue: concerns about the state of democracy and its future in the United States. However, their worries are deeply divided along partisan lines, reflecting the nation’s political polarization.

According to a poll conducted by The Big Big News-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, a substantial 62% of American adults believe that the fate of U.S. democracy hinges on the outcome of the upcoming election. Notably, this sentiment is shared across the political spectrum, with 72% of Democrats and 55% of Republicans expressing similar concerns. Nevertheless, the reasons behind their apprehension differ significantly.

President Joe Biden has portrayed a bleak picture of the future if the GOP front-runner and former President Donald Trump were to return to the White House. Biden has raised concerns about Trump’s potential actions, including seeking retribution against opponents and possibly abusing the powers of the presidency. On the other hand, Trump has countered this narrative by accusing Biden of weaponizing the federal government to target him, labeling Biden as the “destroyer of American democracy.”

From the left, there is a palpable fear of electing a president seen as authoritarian, someone who appears eager to diminish checks and balances within the government, thereby strengthening the presidency’s powers in unprecedented ways, potentially affecting various sectors of government and the population.

Conversely, Republicans from the right express concerns about government overreach, the growth of big government, perceived threats to individual freedoms, and mandates to adopt certain policies. This perspective reflects apprehensions about potential changes to the role of government in people’s lives.

Despite the differences in their reasons, the poll paints a picture of a nation where approximately half of U.S. adults, or 51%, believe that democracy is currently functioning inadequately, indicating a deep-seated dissatisfaction with the state of governance.

The poll also assessed the importance of the upcoming presidential election across 12 different issues. It revealed that 67% of respondents believe the election’s outcome will be very or extremely important for the future of U.S. democracy, trailing only behind the economy (75%) in significance. This level of concern is nearly equivalent to the importance assigned to government spending (67%) and immigration (66%).

These findings underscore a persistent trend of skepticism among Americans about the effectiveness of their democratic system. Many feel that their government is failing to represent their interests effectively, touching upon a range of issues from immigration and abortion to economic policies.

Political science experts suggest that the current climate in the United States exhibits several elements commonly associated with the decline of democracies, including polarization, growing ethnic or racial tensions, economic inequality, and an accumulation of power in the executive office.

It is important to note that while former President Trump is not solely responsible for these conditions, his actions and rhetoric have exacerbated these challenges. His authoritarian tendencies and a significant following that supports or validates such behavior contribute to the nation’s vulnerability.

The poll highlights the stark partisan divide on the potential consequences of the 2024 election. A striking 87% of Democrats and 54% of independents believe that a second Trump term would weaken U.S. democracy. Conversely, 82% of Republicans believe that another Biden win would have the same effect, with 56% of independents sharing this viewpoint. These numbers demonstrate how deeply entrenched these concerns are within each political group.

Moreover, about 19% of U.S. adults believe that democracy in the United States is already so broken that the outcome of the 2024 presidential election may not make a significant difference. Republicans are more likely (23%) than Democrats (10%) to hold this view, but overall, few believe that U.S. democracy can withstand the election’s outcome without facing significant challenges.

Social media platforms and news outlets that reinforce existing biases further contribute to the polarization, as they push people from different political perspectives to perceive the other side as the primary threat to the nation’s democracy. This media environment fuels the genuine fear that many Americans have regarding the future of their democracy.

In summary, as the 2024 presidential election looms, Americans are unified in their concern for the state of democracy in the United States, even though their specific worries are deeply divided along partisan lines. The outcome of this election is seen as a pivotal moment in the nation’s history, with the majority of citizens feeling that the future of democracy hangs in the balance. The extent of this concern is emblematic of a society grappling with deep-seated divisions and anxieties about the health of its democratic institutions.

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More about Election Impact on Democracy

• The Big Big News-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research
• President Joe Biden
• Donald Trump
• Political polarization in the United States
• Social media’s impact on politics
• U.S. democracy challenges
• 2024 U.S. presidential election