Africa Hosts Climate Summit Amidst Weather Forecasting Deficits, Leaving the Continent Vulnerable

While weather forecasts are a routine aspect of daily life in many parts of the world, the majority of Africa’s population of 1.3 billion faces significant deficits in this critical information. This lack of data can lead to catastrophic outcomes, both in terms of human life and economic loss amounting to billions of dollars.

The inaugural Africa Climate Summit is set to commence on Monday in Kenya, focusing on the continent which is expected to be the hardest hit by climate change despite its minimal contribution to the crisis. One of the urgent objectives of the summit is to improve Africa’s climate change adaptation mechanisms, particularly in the area of weather forecasting. A common thread running through diverse topics on the summit’s agenda, such as energy and agriculture, is the deficiency in essential data gathering required for key decision-making processes.

Spanning a geographical area larger than China, India, and the United States combined, Africa is woefully underequipped with only 37 radar facilities for monitoring weather patterns, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s database. In contrast, Europe boasts 345 radar facilities, while North America has 291.

Asaf Tzachor, a researcher at the University of Cambridge’s Center for the Study of Existential Risk, has termed the continent as existing within a “climate risk blind spot.” Tzachor and his colleagues have cautioned that, by 2050, climate change could cost Africa upwards of $50 billion annually, by which time the continent’s population is projected to double. The inadequacy of weather tracking and forecasting systems directly impacts vital development plans. Investment in small agricultural enterprises, for example, becomes futile if these are simply going to be destroyed by unforeseen floods.

Kenya, the summit’s host nation, is among the few African countries with a relatively advanced meteorological service, alongside South Africa and Morocco. The Kenyan government has allocated approximately $12 million this year for weather services, a paltry sum when compared to the U.S. National Weather Service’s budget request of $1.3 billion for the fiscal year 2023.

The 54-nation African continent remains largely under-served in terms of reliable weather forecasting systems. The World Meteorological Organization stated in 2019 that Africa has the most underdeveloped land-based observation network among all continents, and it is further deteriorating. Between 2015 and 2020, due to insufficient funding, the frequency of atmospheric observations using weather balloons dropped by as much as 50% over the continent. Less than 20% of sub-Saharan African nations provide dependable weather services.

However, there is some hope. A United Nations-backed trust fund, the Systematic Observations Financing Facility, is providing financial support to 13 data-deficient African countries like Ethiopia, Madagascar, and Congo to enhance weather data collection and dissemination. Moreover, a focus on better data recording has become imperative as climate-induced crises, such as severe droughts, become more frequent.

Professor Nick van de Giesen of Delft University of Technology emphasized that while weather forecasts in Western countries serve mostly as a convenience, the situation in Africa is far more critical. With the changing climate, traditional methods to determine the onset of the rainy season are increasingly unreliable, leading to failed crops and exacerbating the ongoing global food security crisis.

In coastal countries like Somalia and Mozambique, which have some of the longest and most susceptible coastlines in Africa, the absence of effective weather monitoring has contributed to large-scale human tragedy, like the deaths resulting from tropical storms and floods. Cyclone Idai, which struck Mozambique in 2019, was the costliest disaster in Africa between 1970 and 2019, with damages estimated at $1.9 billion.

In summary, the deficiency of weather data not only impedes the association of certain natural disasters with climate change but also complicates developmental planning and decision-making processes. Investment in basic infrastructure such as rain gauges could yield significant benefits, as even slight variations in rainfall patterns can impact millions of lives.

The urgency for robust climate data and research for this vulnerable region has never been more acute, a message that is expected to resonate strongly at the upcoming Africa Climate Summit.

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More about Africa Climate Summit and Weather Forecasting Deficits

• World Meteorological Organization Database
• Systematic Observations Financing Facility
• U.S. National Weather Service Budget for Fiscal Year 2023
• Report on Africa’s Climate Vulnerability
• Study on Economic Implications of Climate Change in Africa
• Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO)
• World Weather Attribution Studies
• WMO Report on Weather Extremes and Economic Toll
• Climate Risk & Early Warning Systems Initiative